Wars, Guns and Viruses
In 2008, the legendary Sir Paul Collier Sir Paul Collier released his famous work and best seller, ‘Wars, Guns and Votes’. The book adopts an inventive vista by critiquing the application of democracy in the third world. The book is in many ways iconoclastic as it debunks the “Kumbaya” theory that saw politics of the 90’s as an end in and of itself, completely ignoring the necessary factors and processes that make it a reliable system. This article isn’t remotely similar thematically, even though Sir Paul Collier remains one of the most significant analysts of globalization. In this article, I rather attempt to evaluate what the focus of humanity should be and how the enemy of civilization has evolved over time.
In order to understand the situation on our hands, it is pertinent to examine where we are as a race. Globalization is one of the most prominent vestiges of civilization. It has been incredibly resolute, consistently trumping the forces of Nationalism and Xenophobia. Even if the recent rise of right wing populism in Europe has been a worry, you can place your bet on globalization stomping through the hurdles unscathed. The reality is that globalization is here to stay and I know this because globalization — by its very nature — is steep. The deeper humanity goes, the more entangled we are, making exiting increasingly uphill. The Brexit saga perfectly encapsulates this. No one could have predicted that the UK leaving the EU would have taken three years and three Prime Ministers, however the Brexit process proved a more herculean task than many Brits predicted. As humanity, regardless of our vast differences, we are deeply interwoven; with the proliferation of multinationals, the free movement of labour, and the constant harmonization of political and social interests. The Covid-19 outbreak perhaps exposes a different angle of the interconnectedness of the world: we are all as bad as the worst of us, and vulnerable to the inadequacies of systems wherever they are.
As Wuhan, the epicenter of the global pandemic, breathes for the first time in weeks and hope creeps back into the minds of Chinese denizens, the rest of the world still reels in the zinger of the sheer disaster of the pandemic. Donald Trump in his recent statements has consistently referred to Covid-19 as the “Chinese Virus”, a scurrilous but unsurprising vitriol on the Chinese who, in a cheeky ‘reprisal’, referred to mass shooting as “white mass shooting”. The harsh reality Trump must deal with is that China will almost certainly be Covid-19 free before the USA. This is not the time for meaningless argy bargy and polemic, it is time for a new consciousness. More than ever there is a need for the world to unite and fight against the most widespread problems emanating from Globalization.
The world is at war with what Donald Trump recently referred to as “an unseen enemy”. That might be another Chinese diss, or what he might deem to be an inspirational statement. Nonetheless, Mr Trump is partly correct: the world is certainly at war. However, I disagree that the enemy is unseen — the enemy is conspicuous. The enemy is you and I. We are at war with ourselves, however not in the way the world is currently framed; not in the USA v Iran, or the Syria v ISIS sense. Our enemy is our domineering and imperious prepotency; our desire for new adventures leads to the inevitable encounter of novel situations, possibilities, and problems. As humanity crosses boundaries and acquires new spaces, we constantly encounter new animals which of course expose us to new bacteria, diseases, and viruses. Covid-19 has shown just how astonishingly unprepared we are. Bill Gates, in a 2015 Ted Talk, bemoaned the lack of stable healthcare systems to deal with epidemics. He made it clear that the world was not ready for the next epidemic and at the time his words were met with murmurs of approval and harrumphing in equal measure. Nothing changed after that, of course. The US for example in the five-year period has spent trillions of dollars on their military. According to the White House Office for Management and Budget, the estimated USA spending between October 1, 2020 and September 2021 is 934 billion, while the healthcare figures are significantly lower. And, rather surprisingly, the only US 2020 Presidential candidate who has advocated for universal healthcare, Bernie Sanders, has been subjected to vituperation, and his message has been met with paranoia almost reminiscent of the Mc-Carthyism witch-hunt era, even within the Democratic Party.
The only thing the USA is sufficiently prepared for is warfare, and the same goes for the most of the western world. But the question is: with whom are we at war? The forces of terrorism still prevail to an extent undoubtedly but clearly do not require so many trillions of dollars to contain; international armed conflicts are almost an impossibility with the proliferation of nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction. The biggest threat to the world isn’t ISIS, or North Korea, it is viruses. Even if the threats of belligerent states and terrorists persist, we are sufficiently equipped to contain them. What we are evidently not prepared for whatsoever is an outbreak of a virus. Covid-19 has stunned the world in a devastating way. However, like Bill Gates rightly said, the signs were clear from the onset. The Ebola virus persisted and wrecked Africa in an unprecedented way. In reality, though, if African Governments were more proactive the casualties wouldn’t have been as high as they were, and some eleven thousand people would not have lost their lives. Things could have certainly been a lot worse. Many experts say the eradication of the Ebola virus was serendipitous more than strategic, and this is in no way to detract from the efforts of or undermine the heroism of health workers in Africa who put their lives on the line. Notwithstanding the notable work of health workers and epidemiologists, the discernibility of the Ebola virus, and the fact that it wasn’t rife in urban areas, were telling in seeing a low spread and effectively led to it being curtailed.
Covid-19 is not quite the grim reaper that Ebola was. It is not immediately fatal or conspicuous and can persevere in the body surreptitiously for many days before manifesting. This is the same for some of the other Coronaviruses, and that is why our unpreparedness has been exposed in this manner. Viruses like Covid-19 warrant urgent reforms to healthcare systems globally. No one must be left behind because, as far as globalization persists, we are as vulnerable as the weakest system. Therefore, there must be collective action to put in place mechanisms everywhere to curtail the rapid spread of viruses like Covid-19, because it is going to be a part of our future as we aggressively expand and possess newer territories.
Thinking ahead…
When terrorism began in Europe, it was met by a serious fight back. States around the world put measures in place to deal with it, and we embraced it somewhat as part of our lives moving forward, leading us to effectively curtail it. Terrorism is a more visceral threat to National Security and the State’s existence, so it is easy to see why it was taken with the most seriousness. I fear outbreaks like Covid-19 might not be treated with the same seriousness; governments might just see this period as a phase which will pass. This is not a phase: this is our future. And as such, we must develop systems to deal with future outbreaks. The same way we have effective anti-terrorism units is the same way we must build special hospitals and have special endemic/pandemic response systems all around the world. Perhaps if we develop swift response systems there will never be need for Martial Law, however, if there will ever be need for it, the best time for such debates to happen is not in the middle of the crisis but before it; states must have special procedures to follow in times of major outbreaks so they don’t escalate.
The WHO cannot be a monitoring institution anymore but must be ready to get its hand dirty. In the same way that the UN carries out Peacekeeping missions and forms intervention coalitions, the WHO should be more actively involved in collaborating with governments of the world to ensure that all states have a bare minimum response mechanism. With combat, the colossal states can call the shots from the top and intervene when they like, but with indiscernible viruses like Covid-19, real damage can be done before anyone knows, and it takes one person to restart the pandemic.
Citizens have the biggest role to play. The process of globalization is technical and is often outsourced to technocrats to handle. Things like free trade agreements and treaties often get public input. Brexit, fortunately, was on the back of a public referendum. However, there was widespread misinformation and a misunderstanding of the intricacies; there is a widespread belief a call for a second referendum might have changed the status of Brexit — that is however a conversation for another day. The point is: the method of checking Globalization cannot be restricted to the election process, which is periodical. There must be more frequent engagement by citizens on which civil societies get funding, and the purposes of funding. There must be a demand for universal healthcare systems, in every country of the world. This is not compassion but pragmatism; as long as borders are open and movement of labour keeps getting easier, the asymmetry of healthcare systems in the first and third world makes no sense whatsoever. We must harmonize the systems and set a baseline. Politicians will never do this unilaterally because, even in dire circumstances, there is always the nagging belief that money can insulate elites from crisis. We the people must push them.
It is crunch time for humanity. It is uncertain if there will be an “after” or a “post pandemic period”; we can’t assume the worst and believe there’ll be none. While the scientists work around the clock to find vaccines for Covid-19, as we sit in our houses playing football with toilet rolls and watching Netflix, we must not forget to build our resolve and develop a new consciousness. This is not a phase, it is our future, and we must ensure our governments recognize that and fall in line sooner than later
